When is the next big earthquake expected to hit in California?
Mar 07, 2010
in
Earthquake Questions
We have experienced several lately and with the chile and haiti one hitting i have a feeling were next.
Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!
9 comments
pitademon2000 on March 7, 2010 at 6:16 pm
April 13th, 2011 3:44 in the afternoon. It will be a sunny day, just a hint of a breeze in the air. There will already be a low level anxiety in the air as the tax deadline approaches.
Elizabeth H on March 7, 2010 at 6:16 pm
the possibility of a major California quake in the next few decades is very real. The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous Bay Area estimates. For the entire California region, the fault with the highest probability of generating at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger is the southern San Andreas (59% in the next 30 years).
There are several reasons for the perception that the number of earthquakes, in general, and particularly destructive earthquakes is increasing. In the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. The population at risk is increasing. While the number of large earthquakes is fairly constant, population density in earthquake-prone areas is constantly increasing. In some countries, the new construction that comes with population growth has better earthquake resistance; but in many it does not. So we are now seeing increasing casualties from the same sized earthquakes. Just a few decades ago, if several hundred people were killed by an earthquake in Indonesia or eastern China, for example, the media in the rest of the world would not know about it until several days, to weeks, later, long after such an event would be deemed “newsworthy”. So by the time this information was available, it would probably be relegated to the back pages of the newspaper, if at all. And the public Internet didn’t even exist. We are now getting this information almost immediately.
Source(s):
earthquake.usgs.gov
Mark V on March 7, 2010 at 6:16 pm
No earthquake anywhere in the world influences another earthquake anywhere in the world. The likelihood of any earthquake happening near you and me in California is no more or no less than it was on Wednesday.
Haiti occurred about two thousand miles away along a transform fault between the North American and Caribbean plates.
Chile’s quake was three thousand miles away at a subduction zone between the Nazca and South American plates.
There was a good-sized earthquake off of Okinawa, about four thousand miles away, big enough for people to worry about, that occurred along the subduction of the Philippine and Pacific plates.
The only pattern is that they completely coincidentally occurred in a relatively short time compared to what we normally see. This means absolutely nothing. Seriously, they weren’t even on the same boundary or same *plates!* These things happen. You can have a long period of quiet that is then punctuated by a "flurry" of activity — coincidental.
It’s not much different than other things that occur in our daily lives. My city had almost no violent crimes of any kind for about two years. Then, for no apparent reason, and all of them completely unrelated, we had three murders. Now we’ve had a long period of peace again. These things happen, and there’s nothing threatening about it.
Here, Kitteh Kitteh on March 7, 2010 at 6:16 pm
Here is a map showing the earthquakes for the last 20 years in Northern California. I’d say the next one will be within hours since that is what is normal for the area. Actually, there have been fewer earthquakes than average for California for the past couple of weeks.
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/recent/nc71353530_s.jpg
Jr m on June 16, 2010 at 4:20 am
whats the estimated percent damage that central cali will recive. and how much time till it hits ….
Jordan on December 30, 2010 at 9:15 am
There were a lot of predictions that it would happen sometime in 2010. No one knows when… are we scared? Defenately! All I can say is just prepare for it, but we have 2 more days left of 2010…. so you never know lol. But I have been reading that it could happen in 2011, 2012, anytime within the next 27 years
Multi on January 6, 2011 at 9:30 am
Actually “Here kitteh Kitteh” everyday your chances increase. without having frequent small earthquakes along that fault there is no stress being relived. the stress on the rocks continually increases as every day go by and the earthquake grows with each on of those days. The fact that it is in a subduction zone is even more frightening. Zones extremely similar to the San Andreas fault have produced many earthquakes in the 8.0 and 9.0 ranges.
If you start seeing earthquakes along other faults near the San Andreas be prepared. It can either relieve stress on that fault, or make it much much worse. Also the length of a fault is directly related to the size of the earthquake and although usually an entire fault does not snap at once, even if half of the San Andreas fault snapped it would be catastrophic. When it happens it’s going to be big. And everyday it looms closer and closer.
adrianna on March 9, 2011 at 9:05 pm
march 24,2011 it’s going to be 8.1 it’s going to hit san fransisco at 11am when kids are in school so let kids be absent. this is from san fransisco news.
p.s this will also hit san diego BE READY!!!!!!!!
Cindarella on April 13, 2011 at 4:56 am
march 24 didn’t happen.. don’t make false predictions like jim berkland