Comments on: What it the method for predict the Natural Disaster? http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm Everything You Want To Know About Earthquakes Sat, 28 Jan 2012 23:45:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: pboulerie http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm/comment-page-1#comment-900 pboulerie Sat, 20 Jun 2009 19:42:34 +0000 http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm#comment-900 method to predict earthquakes : electricity conductivity measurements in the soil (looking for water masses). Not very reliable. Was tried in Greece 25 years ago... VAN method volcano : via earthquake statistics and magma chamber angular measurements. tsunami : none. Only observation with buoys and warning system can help (1 h forecast, enough to evacuate a beach) flooding : a few hours delay once it has rained. See rain prediction for 24 to 48 h delay. Lots of methods involve extrapolating data from a past trend (it has been raining for the last 6 hours, therefore the river level will go up), or looking for existing historical scenarios (like it is exactly as during the 1999 great flood, same pattern, same area, same consequences). method to predict earthquakes : electricity conductivity measurements in the soil (looking for water masses). Not very reliable. Was tried in Greece 25 years ago… VAN method

volcano : via earthquake statistics and magma chamber angular measurements.

tsunami : none. Only observation with buoys and warning system can help (1 h forecast, enough to evacuate a beach)

flooding : a few hours delay once it has rained. See rain prediction for 24 to 48 h delay.

Lots of methods involve extrapolating data from a past trend (it has been raining for the last 6 hours, therefore the river level will go up), or looking for existing historical scenarios (like it is exactly as during the 1999 great flood, same pattern, same area, same consequences).

]]> By: quack http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm/comment-page-1#comment-901 quack Sat, 20 Jun 2009 19:42:34 +0000 http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm#comment-901 one way to predict natural disaster or bad whether is coming is to understand nature itself. one example is a frog, if the frog is bellow water, their is a bad whether coming. one way to predict natural disaster or bad whether is coming is to understand nature itself. one example is a frog, if the frog is bellow water, their is a bad whether coming.

]]> By: mike1942f http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm/comment-page-1#comment-902 mike1942f Sat, 20 Jun 2009 19:42:34 +0000 http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm#comment-902 We don't have reliable methods of predicting any of the natural disasters that you name. Satellites give us the ability to observe hurricanes and other aspects of weather and give warnings of building danger. Earthquakes and tsunamis caused by earthquakes do not give enough clues as to when the earth will release. Volcano's give more warning, but as we saw with Mt St. Helens and Pinatubo (sp?), people tend to get worn out by long term warnings and ignore detailed ones. We don't have reliable methods of predicting any of the natural disasters that you name. Satellites give us the ability to observe hurricanes and other aspects of weather and give warnings of building danger. Earthquakes and tsunamis caused by earthquakes do not give enough clues as to when the earth will release. Volcano's give more warning, but as we saw with Mt St. Helens and Pinatubo (sp?), people tend to get worn out by long term warnings and ignore detailed ones.

]]> By: rhythm http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm/comment-page-1#comment-903 rhythm Sat, 20 Jun 2009 19:42:34 +0000 http://earthquakequestions.com/what-it-the-method-for-predict-the-natural-disaster.htm#comment-903 Earth Scientists Use Fractals to Measure and Predict Natural Disasters College Park, MD (January 30, 2002) Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals. A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems. A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole. Earth Scientists Use Fractals to Measure and Predict Natural Disasters

College Park, MD (January 30, 2002) Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals.

A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems.
A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole.

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