How likely is it that Hurricane Gustav will go to Florida?
Sep 29, 2009
in
Hurricane
I live in South Florida, and I know that the hurricane has been predicted to go west of florida, but we all know that hurricanes can make drastic turns. What do you think will happen?
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19 comments
? on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
I doubt Florida will see much of Gustav. My gut tells me New Orleans is in huge trouble though.
Prophet 1102 on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
To early to tell yet – depends on what kind of pressure region is to the north.
It could head right for New Orleans again.
Hope B on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
i was listening to the weather today and they said anyone from the wast side of florida to the east side of Texas will be hit by Sunday.
♥ Braves Fan ♥ on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Im not sure.. hopefully it’ll disappear, but i know thats not gonna happen.. I live in South Alabama and all that rain from Fay liked to flooded us! So maybe it’ll go somewhere other than the fl panhandle.
cyswxman on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
I don’t see a drastic turn, as an upper high pressure area over the southeastern U.S. will prevent a turn like that. The high would basically have to collapse unexpectedly, and the pattern now does not favor that happening. By the time the high does weaken, it will have conducted Gustav well west of Florida, with the middle Gulf coast more threatened, maybe even the western Florida panhandle.
You can see the latest track prediction here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144112.shtml?5day#contents
Harry K on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Right now, it looks like Florida will get some harsh weather from Gustav but the brunt of the storm will bypass it and head out into the gulf. But you never know for sure…be sure to keep an eye on it.
You can easily track Gustav with the special section of links on http://www.USAMediaGuide.com. There, you can find links to the National Hurricane Center coverage, local TV and newspaper coverage, live webcam feeds, and other Gustav stuff.
B-man on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
It is very unlikely that the storm will hit florida. The florida keys/ south western florida will see some outer bands of the storm.
The projected path is set to hit the coastal states at the beginning of the week.
wendy c on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
people in Florida should have the Natl Hurricane center for their home page. You will see a link to Gustav on the main page, then you can read the discussion and look at the maps. Unlike tornados, you will always have advance warning, and can be prepared. The 3 and 5 day tracks are pretty good, even though they do shift. But the tracks use all info.
I am just an amateur, but this one looks like it will be heading for Louisiana or Texas. I pay attention to stuff all over the country, since son in law is a truck driver. If you learn to use the main weather sites (hurricane center, national weather service, intellicast) you can keep up with stuff pretty well. Florida should stay ready all during the season.
dammit on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Over here in Louisiana we are close to the anniversary of hurricane Katrina (Aug. 29th) and watching the weather today is sending chills up my spine. I was joking with my mom in Tennessee that with my luck, now that my boyfriend and I have bought a house down here, we’d get another Katrina. I am hoping that’s not true but I don’t like where the projected path is taking it so far.
menendezalexis on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
first its goin to go well south of south florida and the track is almost certain cuz their pretty sure the high will intensify over the florida peninsula
elykmamda on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Nah it looks like new orleans is headed under water again
Joe&NickJonasLover<3 on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
its coming to houma/new orleans, louisiana
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_5day.html#a_topad
weathermansam on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
No I do not expect a florida landfall. I don’t even think there is a chance anymore. The only area it could possibly hit was extreme western florida but it is highly unlikely.
Here is what I siad on some other questions on Gustav.
Here I said this in several questions about Gustav…
Well, it depends on which forecast model you look at.
The BAMS, BMAD, BAMM, models are bringing gustav to almost a direct hit with New Orleans. This does not appear to be the likely scenario.
The UKMET, LBAR, GFDL, models are showing that the hurricane will likely make a Central/Norther texas or extreme wester LA landfall. This looks more reasonable and will most likely will be the path.
BUT…. The NHC(National Hurricane Center) model is taking the storm to make a Central LA landfall and that could involve New Orleans. The NHC model is in the middle of the two outliers so it could very well be the correct track.
Once it enters the golf with water temperatures reaching 90 it is forecast to rapidly strenghten.
Could make landfall as a Category 4 maybee 5???
Check out this website for more information on the track…
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/
jonsiegirl08 on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Well I am from Waveland, MS. About 35-40 miles east of New Orleans. Remember, N.O. was not hit by Katrina. Katrina had already made landfall and moved inland when the levees broke and desimated New Orleans. Waveland was however a direct hit for Katrina. But yes, any hit from Gustave in either New Orleans or Mississippi would be detrimental since both area are still trying to recover and insurance rates are already out of control .
Shaun R on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Doubt it will, im sure that ridge of high pressure won’t collapse drastically in 5 days. This storm is starting to track on the southern periphery of this storm, which will make it track due west for a day or 2, then it will be on the west side of the ridge which will make this puppy go northwest, smacking New Orleans in the face, to now include the GFDL. Most models now track this storm more torwards LA/MS area, which is almost certain. But if this ridge shifts to the left, Gustav will track more west before it makes the NW turn, thus carrying this storm somewhere between High Island, TX to New Iberia, LA. Chances of that happening are not likely, since High Island TX would be on the extreme west of cone of uncertainity. I am going to predict this storm is all LA/MS!!!
T F on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
No I think you r safer then me in Baton Rouge.
Louisiana Girl on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
I am 45 mins away from NOLA and it seems like it may be heading this way!
People are trying to get ready. The levee will not be finished till 2011 so if we get hit it’s going to be really bad as I am sure with any of the gulf coast states. They sent buses down to NOLA today to start evacuating and schools are being canceled! Those poor homeless people from Katrina are under the bridge and there is still damage so I really hope it does not hit NOLA(not that I wish it on anyone else…I wish it would turn back around and stay in the water and die out) Some gas stations has run out of gas and generators are all gone. I wish it would die down once it hit the gulf but I doubt it.
Good luck to everyone! I hope everyone stays safe and has no damage.
Happy Go Lucky on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
It will not make landfall near florida. there are currently tropival storm watches for the keys in florida but it is expected to take a more westerly track towards louisiana and mississippi. Though we cannot rule out the fact that it may brush up against the panhandle of Florida
"G" on September 29, 2009 at 6:41 pm
It seems to be headed to the mid-section of Louisiana. I’m in the southeastern part of the state and most of the people here are evacuating. (Except me. I’m staying, but stockpiling drinking water and making plans to stay in the attic if necessary.)