California BIG earthquake?
Feb 09, 2010
in
Earthquake Questions
I heard that there is a 99% chance that there will be a 6.7+ earthquake in California within the next 30 years. What do you think of that? San Fransisco has already had I think a 6.7 quake, but they say there will be another a BIG one. They say there is a 10% chance of a 8 to 9 magnitude quake, but I highly doubt that. And the likelihood of a 7.5 or greater is 46% in southern california, most likely, they said. But I don’t know… Do you??
Who actually lives in California too? I live in California…
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5 comments
mandobob on February 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
Well… California is a big state with lots of potential for large destructive earthquakes (say..greater than 6 on the Richter scale) in heavily populated areas like SF and LA. Depending where you are may have a lot to due with how strong of a quake you might experience. The US Geological Survey periodically makes probability forecasts regarding the chances of large quakes in both southern and northern California. These forecasts are based on reviewing the prehistory record of earthquake damage and age-dating to determine how long between the quakes. Unfortunately not all quakes yield useful information so their forecast may not have all the accuracy folks would like so they talk about percent chance over some time frame. Also it is very difficult to estimate quake strength from these paleoseisimic studies. Regardless, large destructive earthquakes in California (lets focus our discussion on the coastal areas of LA and SF) happen on a time frame often enough that it is likely that you could experience one of them within your lifetime and easily within a 30 year period. Your local emergency response folks probably can direct you to the most recent USGS evaluations.
Yolando-Pancho on February 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
I know its going to happen very very soon. I’m praying it doesn’t occur in 2012, because then…everyone’s screwed.
And the thing is, no one outside of the U.S. will help California. We’ve donated so much to Haiti, but do you think anyone would be that generous to us? They weren’t to Katrina. We had to deal with that ourselves (under a stupid president).
It does depend on the magnitude. Because we do have stronger buildings then..let’s say Haiti. Sure we’ll have stuff flying everywhere, but it shouldn’t be so bad as we expect. California better start saving for money in case of it.
Christina on February 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
I think tat it is true since California has alot of earthquakes b4. take the Haiti earthquake for example, the magnitude of tat is 7. No one wud really noe for sure until tat day comes.
el_zoido on February 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
if there are a lot of small earthquakes it´s unlikely to have a big one. earthquakes are a result of by stress-relief in the crust. So if there are a lot of earthquakes that means there is less stress than before and there is no stress left to trigger a new bigger quake.
And btw its not possible to predict earthquakes !
☆Hears the calling; on February 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
Not 1 person can predict an earthquake. Animals; like a dog have a 6th sense about it though.